Vid fighting worst monsoon in last 10 yrs

Despite a relatively better monsoon as compared to rainfall in many parts of the country, this is the worst monsoon in Vidarbha in last
10 years. The deficiency in some of the worst hit districts in region (six of the eleven Vidarbha) districts is as high as 48 to 44% while in other areas it ranges from 36 to 18%. Nagpur happens to be the least affected district with a deficiency of just 10% which is considered normal.

A B Majumdar, deputy director general, weather forecasting, Indian Meteorological Department, admitted to TOI that it was one of the worst monsoons in past few years but could not be related to climate change. "From 1988 to 2001, the monsoon has been fairly good throughout the country except for some scattered areas. Generally it is very rare that drought continues for more than two years. Monsoon does not follow any definite pattern. Generally, a drought is followed by good rainfall the next year as was the case in 1987-88. Drought was experienced in 1987 but was followed by very good monsoon the next year," he explained.

Experts in the Regional Meteorological Office (RMO) too have something similar to say. "There has been a substantial fall in the overall amount of rainfall in the region in the past decade or so. But this does not mean that the trend is likely to continue in future too. It is difficult to exactly predict the future monsoons. But the data of past few decades or even the entire century shows that there are always regular upward and downward trends in the monsoon for a few years together," said P K Nandankar, director RMO.

Some other experts say that the monsoon is becoming more erratic and the total number of rainy days too were decreasing substantially every season. "The situation is likely to worsen in another few years," said a weather scientist.

A look at Vidarbha's monsoon this year (June 1 to September 30) shows that the region is still deficient by 32%. But this is an average figure of region. Yavatmal district, the suicide belt of Vidarbha, is the worst hit as it has recorded minimum rainfall at is facing 48% deficiency. Chandrapur and Washim are next in line with 44% deficiency. Gadchiroli district, which is expected to receive the highest rainfall (1249.1mm) in region, has recorded only 890.6 mm rainfall bringing the deficiency to 36%. Wardha too is not in a good position and is deficient by 32%.

The other districts where deficiency ranges from 30 to 10% include Gondia (29%), Amravati (28%), Bhandara (25%), Akola (18%) and Nagpur (10%).